Predict COO

Country of origin prediction 

Country of origin (COO) prediction eliminates supply chain uncertainty by intelligently determining product manufacturing locations when this critical information is missing. Our COO prediction system examines product attributes and manufacturing patterns to identify the most likely country of origin with measurable confidence scores.

Accurate country of origin information is essential for international trade compliance, determining tariff rates, meeting regulatory requirements, and navigating trade restrictions. Missing or incorrect origin data can result in customs delays, penalties, and supply chain disruptions.

This solution addresses critical scenarios like missing manufacturer data from sellers or suppliers, secondhand marketplaces where resellers don't know the original manufacturing location, and verifying compliance by cross-checking existing country of origin claims.

How it works 

Under the hood, the service runs our proprietary multimodal, multilingual transformer based model. The model ingests text from the name, description, and categories fields, and when supplied, images are encoded by a shared vision adapter. The model has been optimized to produce well calibrated inference probabilities across all 200+ Zonos supported countries. The label with the highest probability is returned as countryOfOrigin and the top 5 labels form alternates. The model is refreshed on a rolling schedule using tens of millions of anonymized customs declarations and ecommerce listings.

Prediction accuracy correlates directly with input data quality. Detailed product descriptions with ship-from country data yield high confidence results, while generic descriptions provide insufficient information for reliable prediction.

Alternates 

Since global manufacturing often involves multiple countries, the COO prediction tool provides a primary country of origin prediction along with alternate possibilities when manufacturing patterns indicate multiple viable locations. Each prediction includes confidence scores based on data strength. We recommend using alternates to evaluate edge cases and make informed verification decisions, particularly when the primary prediction has moderate confidence.

Confidence scoring 

Every prediction includes a confidence score (0.0-1.0) based on data quality and pattern strength, with higher scores indicating greater certainty and lower scores suggesting manual review may be needed.

The primary prediction receives the main confidenceScore (0.0-1.0) representing overall confidence in the top result. Alternates, on the other hand, use probabilityMass values - negative log probabilities where values closer to zero indicate higher likelihood among the alternative countries. All prediction scores across alternates total 1.0, showing how certainty is distributed across possible countries.

You can establish custom confidence thresholds that align with your business requirements - for example, automatically accepting primary predictions above 0.85 while routing lower scores to manual review where alternates can guide decision-making.

Request a COO prediction 

COO prediction is currently available via API only.

To request a country of origin prediction, use the countryOfOriginInfer mutation with your product data. While only the name field is required, providing more detailed information significantly improves prediction accuracy and confidence scores.

mutation CountryOfOriginInfer($input: [CountryOfOriginInferenceInput!]!) {
  countryOfOriginInfer(input: $input) {
    brand
    categories
    confidenceScore
    countryOfOrigin
    name
    description
    material
    alternates {
      countryOfOrigin
      probabilityMass
    }
  }
}

{
  "input": {
    "brand": "8Bitdo",
    "name": "8Bitdo Ultimate 2C Wireless Controller for Windows and Android with Hall Effect Joysticks - Mint",
    "categories": ["Video Games", "Controllers"],
    "shipFromCountry": "US",
    "primaryTargetCountryCode": "US",
    "amount": 35.99,
    "currencyCode": "USD"
  }
}

{
  "data": {
    "countryOfOriginInfer": [
      {
        "brand": "8Bitdo",
        "categories": ["Video Games", "Controllers"],
        "confidenceScore": 0.882,
        "countryOfOrigin": "CN",
        "name": "8Bitdo Ultimate 2C Wireless Controller for Windows and Android with Hall Effect Joysticks - Mint",
        "description": "",
        "material": "",
        "alternates": [
          {
            "countryOfOrigin": "CN",
            "probabilityMass": 0.882
          },
          {
            "countryOfOrigin": "US",
            "probabilityMass": 0.065
          },
          {
            "countryOfOrigin": "JP",
            "probabilityMass": 0.046
          },
          {
            "countryOfOrigin": "HK",
            "probabilityMass": 0.002
          },
          {
            "countryOfOrigin": "TW",
            "probabilityMass": 0.001
          }
        ]
      }
    ]
  }
}

Implementation 

We recommend deploying country of origin prediction with confidence thresholds that align to your compliance standards, review workflows for low-confidence results, and implementing fallback strategies when primary predictions return moderate confidence.

This solution is meant to enhance (not replace) your existing country of origin and compliance processes by filling information gaps. Use predictions as actionable intelligence to support verification efforts and identify where additional due diligence is needed.